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As the world grapples with the challenges of transitioning to cleaner energy sources, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted that global coal consumption will remain at historically high levels this year.
Despite efforts to promote renewables and curb carbon emissions, the increase in industrial coal usage is expected to offset the decline in usage for power generation, leading to sustained demand for this fossil fuel, according to IEA's report released on July 27.
Global coal consumption reached a record 8.3 billion tonnes in 2022, with a notable growth rate of 3.3%, according to the latest IEA's report titled "Coal Market Update". This year, the trend is expected to continue, keeping coal consumption at around the same level due to robust demand from Asia, where coal remains more accessible and competitively priced than natural gas.
For the first half of 2023, the IEA estimates that global coal demand will increase by approximately 1.5%, reaching around 4.7 billion tonnes, with the power generation and non-power industrial sectors witnessing growth rates of 1% and 2% respectively.
The coal market saw extreme volatility and high prices last year, but during the first half of 2023, prices have dropped to levels similar to those observed in the summer of 2021. This is attributed to ample supply and declining natural gas prices, which have contributed to a more balanced market.
Asia, in particular, continues to be a key driver of global coal consumption, with countries like China, India, and Southeast Asian nations collectively accounting for three-quarters of the world's coal usage. Despite significant investments in renewable energy across the region, demand for coal remains resilient.
On the other hand, Europe is experiencing a significant decline in coal consumption this year, mainly due to challenges of stagnant industrial electricity demand. A shortage of natural gas in Europe led to a surge in coal imports last year, which, however, resulted in oversupply this year and some coal being redirected to Asian markets. Additionally, lower natural gas prices in the United States have incentivized a reduction in coal usage.
While coal-fired power generation remains a significant part of the global energy mix, it constitutes 36% of the total electricity generated in 2022, according to the IEA. Looking ahead, the agency projects that global coal consumption in 2023 will remain near the record levels seen last year.
Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security at IEA, acknowledged that coal remains the largest single source of carbon emissions in the energy sector. However, in regions like Europe and the United States, the growth of cleaner energy sources has led to a structural decline in coal usage.
(Writing by Alex Guo Editing by Emma Yang)
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