China's power consumption is forecast to increase 6-8% year on year to reach 9,160-9,330 TWh in 2023 amid an obvious rebound in the growth in the industrial and service sectors, Ouyang Changyu, deputy chief engineer of State Grid Corporation of China and executive director of State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., said at an industry meeting on April 26.
The forecast growth exceeded 3.6% both during the first quarter and in 2022, according to historical data released by the National Energy Administration. It is also higher than 6% predicted by China Electricity Council on January 19.
With a likelihood of weak hydropower generation this year, the forecast raised concerns about a surge in power coal should the growth hit the upper range of 8%.
According to the weather forecast, there is a high probability that the Yangtze river basin will continue high temperatures and less rainfall seen in last year, which means it may not be conducive to hydropower generation while it may promote a substantial increase in residential power consumption, expanding peak-to-valley difference in power loads and adding pressure to the power grid.
It is expected that the highest power load in eastern China this summer will reach 397.25 GW, an increase of 32.35 GW or 8.86% year on year, said Wang Kai, deputy chief engineer of the East China Branch of State Grid.
(Writing by Emma Yang Editing by Harry Huo)
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