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The United States' coal-fired power plants are expected to see a significant decline, with capacity decreasing by over 50% from 2022 levels by 2050, Reuters reported, citing the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Costlier environmental regulations, coupled with the rise of natural gas and renewable energy facilities, will contribute to the aging fleet's displacement.
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2023, the EIA presented three scenarios, each projecting varying costs associated with zero-carbon technology. These scenarios anticipate a coal-fired electric-generating capacity reduction ranging from 52% to 88% to 23-97 GW by the middle of the century.
The EIA notes that all three scenarios consider laws and regulations enacted through mid-November, including the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provides tax credits for zero-emission technologies.
It is important to mention that the forecasts do not incorporate the recent proposal aimed at limiting the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by power plants, which account for over a quarter of US emissions. Under the plan, coal plants operational beyond 2040 would need to implement carbon capture and storage technology by 2030. Additionally, plants shutting down between 2035 and 2040 would be required to co-fire with 40% natural gas by 2030.
The Environmental Protection Agency estimated that the proposed plan would lead to a reduction of 617 million tonnes of emissions from coal and new gas plants between 2028 and 2042, equivalent to the annual emissions of 137 million passenger vehicles.
The EIA also predicted a significant increase in combined solar and wind capacities by 2050, surpassing triple their current capacity. These renewable sources are expected to account for 40% to 69% of US electricity generation. Despite the decline, coal is projected to contribute between 1% and 8% of electricity in 2050, owing to its ability to operate continuously without relying on sunlight or wind availability.
(Writing by Alex Guo Editing by Harry Huo)
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