中文
Southwestern China's Sichuan province may confront a power supply gap of 7.5 GW during the peak time this summer due to a rapid growth of cooling demand, although last year's drama of cutting industrial supply to prioritize household use could be no longer staged.
Entering July, Sichuan has experienced increased precipitation, which will improve the hydroelectric supply. The Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Service Center predicts that although the average precipitation during the flood season in Sichuan is slightly below the normal level, it is higher than the same period last year, indicating that the hydroelectric supply may be better than last year.
Still, it faces pressure to ensure power supply.
Last summer, unprecedented heatwave and drought not only led to a surge in local electricity demand but also caused a sharp decrease in hydropower generation, resulting in an electricity shortage of up to nearly 20 GW.
As a major hydropower province, Sichuan's hydropower capacity accounts for approximately 80% of its total electricity generation, making it highly dependent on precipitation conditions. According to data from the Sichuan Climate Center, the average precipitation in Sichuan in spring was 8% below normal, resulting in a reduction in hydroelectric generation.
In mid-June this year, State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Co., Ltd. said on its social media that the electricity load in Sichuan is projected to maintain a moderate-to-rapid growth, with a peak demand of 66 GW compared to last year's 59.1 GW.
The Sichuan Energy Supervision Office recently warned there will be a peak shortage of approximately 7.5 GW when demand peaks as the Chengdu 2023 Summer Universiade is taking place during a critical period for ensuring power supply.
However, overall, the pressure on power supply in Sichuan is lower than last year. On one hand, the average temperatures during the flood season in Sichuan this year are higher than the normal level but lower than the same period last year. On the other hand, the projected peak shortage of 7.5 GW is significantly lower than the 20 GW experienced last year.
This year, Sichuan has reached cooperation agreements with Qinghai, Hubei, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia provinces on peak-load shifting during the peak period, which can alleviate the pressure on power supply during the peak period.
In addition, local thermal power generation has also shown rapid growth. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, thermal power generation in Sichuan increased 36.5% and 86.4% in April and May, respectively, on a year-on-year basis.
Recently, Sichuan issued a plan to adjust the province's time-based electricity pricing mechanism. Through market incentives, the plan aims to guide customers to flexibly adjust their production during peak and off-peak periods.
Furthermore, Sichuan's outbound power supply has also decreased. In June this year, the volume of electricity transmitted from Sichuan decreased nearly 100% compared to the same period last year.
As July unfolds, heavy rainfall has occurred in various parts of Sichuan. The basins where Sichuan's hydropower stations are concentrated, such as western Sichuan Plateau and western part of Panzhihua city, will experience a slight increase of 10% to 20% in water supply compared to the same period in normal years.
(Writing by Alex Guo Editing by Emma Yang)
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