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Coal output in the United States is projected to drop 4.19% year on year to 572.2 million short tons (519 million tonnes) in 2023, higher than the previous month's prediction of 559.5 million short tons, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released by Energy Information Administration (EIA) on July 11.
The report estimated U.S. coal production in 2024 will see another fall of 19.6% to 460.3 million short tons, lower than the previous forecast of 478 million short tons.
In terms of consumption, the report expected U.S. coal consumption in 2023 to decrease 19.94% from a year ago to 410.4 million short tons. Coal consumption in the power sector is forecast to decrease by 21.05% year on year to 371 million short tons, while consumption in retail and other industries is anticipated to be 23.5 million short tons, a drop of 12% YoY.
In 2024, U.S. coal consumption is expected to be 397.4 million short tons, falling 3.71% compared to the year-ago level. The electricity sector will consume 358 million short tons of coal, while the retail and other industries will consume 22.2 million short tons.
The report also said that US energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2023 are projected to fall 3.5% from a year earlier. Specifically, CO2 emissions related to coal combustion will decrease around 20% on the year. In 2024, energy-related CO2 emissions are forecast to decline slightly by 0.31% compared to the preceding year.
Regarding exports, the report revealed that US coal exports in 2023 are estimated to reach 95.7 million short tons, indicating an 11.28% increase from 2022. Exports of thermal coal are projected to be 45.8 million short tons, up 15.95% year on year, while metallurgical coal exports are expected to reach 49.9 million short tons, an increase of 7.31% YoY.
U.S. coal exports are forecast to reach 103.4 million short tons in 2024, showing an 8.05% increase compared to the previous year. Thermal coal exports are projected to be 48.30 million short tons, while metallurgical coal exports are estimated to reach 55.00 million short tons.
(Writing by Riley Liang Editing by Emma Yang)
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